Long time Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter has announced today that he is leaving the Republican Party, and intends to become a Democrat. Discussion around the reasons for Sen. Specter’s defection has, however been overshadowed by the change in the political landscape that his vote may well represent. Why?
The current Senate has 58 Democrats, 41 Republicans, and the (still unresolved) Minnesota seat. Add Sen Specter’s vote to the Democratic column, and that makes 59, and with a high likelihood of Al Franken (who is currently leading the final tally) winning the Minnesota seat, this makes 60 seats. 60 seats, (or 3/5 of 100) is significant as it allows the for the Majority leadership to invoke cloture, which leads to a vote, and restricts the ability of the Minority Party to filibuster legislation it finds particularly odious.
While the US party system is not as rigid as the Westminster tradition, members of the majority party are more likely to bloc vote as whole when their party is in control of Congress, because moderate Minority members can often be persuaded with popular regional projects paid for by federal taxes (porkbarrelling). Still, it remains highly unusual for Congressional members to switch parties, even in the less partisan Senate. Only 13 Senators have switched parties in the last 96 years, and this number includes those who have briefly become independents to effectively rejoin the fold only a few months later.
That the Democrats control 60 votes in the Senate does not necessarily mean that they will invoke cloture, but that a single party has the numbers to do this, for the first time since 1979, whilst also controlling the White House, will certainly curb the ability of the Republican minority to have any impact on legislation at a federal level. The Democrats will now be able to proceed with Barack Obama’s agenda with less roadblocks – improving his chances of making good his promise of bringing “Change” to the United States.
For Specter himself, he likely faced a tough primary battle against former House Rep. Pat Toomey, whom he almost lost to in 2004, and subsequently, a tough battle against any Democratic candidate, in an increasingly blue (pro-Democrat) state, which voted for Obama by 10 points in 2008, and more importantly, voted out conservative Senator Rick Santorum in 2006. By switching allegiances, his likelihood of remaining in the Senate in 2011 is greatly enhanced.
Specter was one of the last of a dying breed of Republican moderates whom faced with, a rump local Republican Party, whose likely primary opponent had already (and previously in 2004) received backing from a key economic group, and an electorate hostile to federal Republicans, chose to end the difference between his values, and that of Pennsylvanians more generally, and his party affiliation.
